Economics-Scholarly Publications
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Browsing Economics-Scholarly Publications by Author "Adegboye, Abidemi"
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- ItemOpen AccessCommodity Price Fluctuation and Fiscal Management in Sub-Saharan Africa(Sochi State University, Rusia, 2021) Adegboye, AbidemiFiscal policy in resource-rich countries should be consistent with achieving macroeconomic objectives such as macroeconomic stability and an efficient allocation of resources especially when its role in injecting share of resource rent into the domestic economy is considered in Africa. However, reliance on revenue from commodity exports renders fiscal management, budgetary planning, and efficient use of public resources demanding. This study thus investigates linkages between commodity prices and fiscal operations among a sample of commodity exporters in SSA. Using data for 1992 to 2017 for nine resource-rich countries in SSA region, panel co-integration and fully modified OLS (FMOLS) technique to determine long run relationship effects. The study finds that elasticity of fiscal policy measures with respect to output gap was significant and positive suggesting that fiscal policy is actually procyclical among our sample of SSA countries. Moreover, it is found that fiscal policy has not performed well in delivering macroeconomic stabilization. The difficulty in applying fiscal stabilization measures is attributable to unstable revenue inflow due to the extremely volatile environment of commodity prices in the global market. Our policy advice is that governments in commodity-exporting SSA countries should track fiscal strategies aimed at breaking procyclical response of expenditure to macroeconomic cycles.
- ItemOpen AccessDecomposing Employment Growth in Selected sub-Saharan African Countries: The Roles of Structural Changes and Demographic Transition(Central Bank of Nigeria, 2020) Adegboye, Abidemi; Clement, IghodaroThe challenge of employment growth in SSA countries goes beyond economic growth prospects to include structural and demographic dimensions. This study examines the relative contributions of structural changes and demographic factors to employment growth for a set of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries using available annual data from 1970 to 2014. A decomposition approach is employed in the study using the Jobs Generation and Growth (JoGGs) method which generates results that show distributive components of employment, productivity and output change over time in a system whereby the roles of economic structure and demographic changes could be observed. The study shows that the pattern of structural change in SSA countries has led to more low-productivity and vulnerable jobs generation. The rising share of the traditional services sector in the economy has driven a large segment of employment into informal low-wage jobs. Major consequences of the nature of demographic changes in the SSA region are found to include decline in overall employment rate and large movement of the labour market towards less productive and low-wage employment. Social policies that address population and migration are therefore required to ensure that demographic factors do not further inhibit the availability of productive employment in SSA.
- ItemOpen AccessMacroeconomic policies and sustainable employment yields in sub-Saharan Africa(African Development Bank, 2020) Adegboye, AbidemiThe impact of macroeconomic policies on employment yields from output growth in sub-Saharan African countries is examined in this study. Data for 37 countries are used for the period 1991–2016 and sustainable employment yields are obtained by comparing employment elasticities for own-account (vulnerable) and employers (formal) groups. The two-stage least squares method is used to estimate employment elasticities for the panel datasets for three sub-periods (1991–1999, 2000–2009, 2010–2016), and the feasible generalised least squares method is used to estimate the effects of policies on employment elasticities based on a pooled dataset for the three sub-periods. Policy efforts are shown to be more effective if moved towards more flexible and targeted tax regimes, more rigid labour markets, and liberalised trade. On the other hand, investment and industrial policies do not appear to exert unidirectional effects on employment, especially given wide variations in government sizes and relative shares of domestic/foreign investment among the countries. There is also evidence that policy influences are more practicable with more formal employment groups. Patterns of macroeconomic policy directions are therefore critical to their effectiveness as labour market adjustment tools in the region.