Mathematics - Scholarly Publications

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Mathematical analysis of the e ect of maternal immunity on the global eradication of measles.
(Faculty of Computers and Applied Computer Science, Tibiscus University of Timisoara, Romania., 2019) Ayoade, A. A.; Agboola, S. O.; Ibrahim, M. O.
Measles susceptibility depends largely on the influx of newborns. Besides, expectant women who contract measles are at the risks of early labor, miscarriage or babies with poor weight. On that ground, we propose a new deterministic mathematical model to study the effect of inborn immunity on the global eradication of measles. The model is based on dividing the entire human population into six disjoint subpopulations. The stability theory of nonlinear differential equation is used to analyse the model. We derive the reproduction number of the model by using the next generation matrix approach and conduct numerical simulations to verify the analytical results. One of the fundamental results of the study is that global eradication of measles is not feasible if efforts are only concentrated on getting more and more pregnant women immunised without taking measures to reduce the rate of exposure of the susceptible individuals to measles infections.