Economics-Scholarly Publications

Permanent URI for this collection

https://ir.unilag.edu.ng/handle/123456789/3454

Browse

Browsing Economics-Scholarly Publications by Subject "ARDL"

Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
  • Item
    Open Access
    A comparative analysis of the impact of current account balances on economic growth of sane countries
    (International Journal of Development and Sustainability, 2018) Ogunniyi, M.B.; Iwegbu, O.; Adekoya, K.I.
    This study investigates the impact of current account balance on economic growth in SANE countries which comprises of South Africa, Algeria, Nigeria and Egypt. A comparative study is conducted on the impact which current account balance has on each country’s economic growth. Various theoretical expositions have led to contradictory conclusions on the impact which current account balance has on economic growth. To achieve the objective of this study, ARDL estimation technique is employed to investigate the comparative analysis and fully modified panel OLS (FMOLS) is employed to investigate the overall impact of current account balance on economic growth. It was discovered from the study that current account balance has a significant negative impact on economic growth for Algeria, Egypt and Nigeria while it has a significant positive impact on economic growth for South Africa. The implication of this finding is that the structure of an economy with respect to her main source of foreign exchange earnings determines the impact of such activities reflected by her current account balance on the country’s economic growth. It is therefore recommended that special attention should be paid to the diversification of the export base. This can principally be through technological innovations, agriculture and so on. Therefore, the mitigation or neutralization of the effect of any short fall or negative shock in the oil sectors can only be achieved by the implementation of reforms and policies that will reduce dependence on oil and promote dependence on the non oil sectors.
  • Item
    Open Access
    Does Policy Switching Matter in Determining Output in Nigeria?
    (Nigerian Journal of Contemporary Public Policy Issues, 2016) Odeleye, A.T.; Iwegbu, O.
    This study examines the performance of Nigeria’s economy under the interest rate, exchange rate and price stability regime in the Pre-SAP, Post-SAP before democratic dispensation; and Post-SAP during democratic dispensation. It leans on the assumptions of the McKinnon-Shaw theory. The study employs the Chow test and Quandt-Andrews Unknown Breakpoint Test to establish that there were truly varying regimes as stated above. Descriptive analyses are used in this study to understand the nature of various monetary policy regimes in Nigeria. Also, ARDL model was used to examine the overall impact of monetary policy on Nigerian since her independence and OLS was used to determine the effect of various monetary policy regimes in Nigeria. It was discovered that exchange rate policy and the interest rate fixing policy adopted in Nigeria since her independence on average, enhanced the economy. Also, exchange rate policy and interest rate policy which are components of macroeconomic policy have significant impact on economic growth in the first regime (Pre-SAP; 1960-1985). However, monetary policy regime in period 2 (Post-SAP before Democratic Dispensation; 1986-1999) was ineffective but monetary policy was effective in this third regime (Post-SAP after Democratic Dispensation; 2000-2015). We, therefore recommend that the government should develop various palliative measures in order to counter the short run shocks that might arise while implementing monetary policy.