Assessment of land use/land cover dynamics using markov environment modeller for future change: Case of Epe LGA, Lagos Nigeria
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Ibadan University Press
Wanton destruction of land cover for socioeconomic reasons has become a common phenomenon in the tropical rainforest region of the world and hence requires assessment. Therefore, this study combined LANDSAT multi-temporal data of 1984, 2000 and 2011 which were processed and classified into five - built-up land, forest land, agricultural land, wetland and waterbody using the maximum likelihood classification method Markov and CA Markov Environment modellers were used respectively to generate a transition probability information matrix and prediction map for the year 2050 with associated land use/land cover statistics. The results show that between 1984 and 2011 there had been a phenomenal change in agricultural land, forest land and waterbody with a reduction of 163 2%, 12.2% and 8.3% respectively, while built-up land and wetland increased by 968.2% and 136.3% within the same period. The result of the probability assessment reveals that built-up land, forest land, agricultural land, wetland and waterbody have 0.54, 0.12, 0.74, 0.09 and 0.89 chances respectively to retain their present sizes, and 0.46, 0.88, 0.26, 0.90 and 0.11 chances respectively to change to other classes in the year 2050. The CA Markov modeller for LULC projection revealed 20.44%. 6.09% and 16.15% proportions of the total land area as the potential sizes for built-up land, wetland and waterbody in 2050 as against 1.51%, 1.94% and 18 22% in that order in 1984. Forest land and agricultural land will have 51 50% and 5.82% in 2050 as against 65.95% and 12.39% respectively in 1984. Based on these results, this study suggested that there is the need for sustainable management and assessment of human immediate land use/land cover changes to maximize the benefits of environmental resources. Thus, regular monitoring with the help of remotely sensed data may serve as a very indispensable tool to assess the local environmental changes and interaction, ecosystem dynamics, emissions of CO, and global change.
CA Markov , climate , forest , land use/land cover , Nigeria , Research Subject Categories::SOCIAL SCIENCES
Ayeni A. O., Akintuyi A. O, Akindele-Igbekoyi M. A and Wunude E. O. (2015). Assessment of land use/land cover dynamics using markov environment modeller for future change: Case of Epe LGA, Lagos Nigeria. In Gbadegesin, A.S., Eze, E. B., Orimoogunje, O.O.I., Fashae, O.A. (eds), Frontiers in Environmental Research and Sustainable Development in the 21st Century. Ibadan University Press. - 630 p.