COVID-19-related absence among surgeons: development of an international surgical workforce prediction model

Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorSimoes, JFF
dc.contributor.authorLi, E
dc.contributor.authorGlasbey, JC
dc.contributor.authorOmar, OM
dc.contributor.authorArnaud, AP
dc.contributor.authorBlanco-Colino, R
dc.contributor.authorBurke, J
dc.contributor.authorChaudhry, D
dc.contributor.authorCunha, MF
dc.contributor.authorElhadi, M
dc.contributor.authorGallo, G
dc.contributor.authorGujjuri, RR
dc.contributor.authorKaafarani, HMA
dc.contributor.authorLederhuber, H
dc.contributor.authorAdamina, M
dc.contributor.author...
dc.contributor.authorAdemuyiwa, AO
dc.contributor.authorAgarwal, A
dc.contributor.authorAlameer, E
dc.contributor.authorAlderson, D
dc.contributor.authoret, al
dc.date.accessioned2022-01-26T11:20:54Z
dc.date.available2022-01-26T11:20:54Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.descriptionScholarly articlesen_US
dc.description.abstractBackground: During the initial COVID-19 outbreak up to 28.4 million elective operations were cancelled worldwide, in part owing to concerns that it would be unsustainable to maintain elective surgery capacity because of COVID-19-related surgeon absence. Although many hospitals are now recovering, surgical teams need strategies to prepare for future outbreaks. This study aimed to develop a framework to predict elective surgery capacity during future COVID-19 outbreaks. Methods: An international cross-sectional study determined real-world COVID-19-related absence rates among surgeons. COVID-19-related absences included sickness, self-isolation, shielding, and caring for family. To estimate elective surgical capacity during future outbreaks, an expert elicitation study was undertaken with senior surgeons to determine the minimum surgical staff required to provide surgical services while maintaining a range of elective surgery volumes (0, 25, 50 or 75 per cent). Results: Based on data from 364 hospitals across 65 countries, the COVID-19-related absence rate during the initial 6 weeks of the outbreak ranged from 20.5 to 24.7 per cent (mean average fortnightly). In weeks 7-12, this decreased to 9.2-13.8 per cent. At all times during the COVID-19 outbreak there was predicted to be sufficient surgical staff available to maintain at least 75 per cent of regular elective surgical volume. Overall, there was predicted capacity for surgeon redeployment to support the wider hospital response to COVID-19. Conclusion: This framework will inform elective surgical service planning during future COVID-19 outbreaks. In most settings, surgeon absence is unlikely to be the factor limiting elective surgery capacity.en_US
dc.identifier.citationCOVIDSurg Collaborative. COVID-19-related absence among surgeons: development of an international surgical workforce prediction model. BJS Open. 2021 Mar 5;5(2):zraa021. doi: 10.1093/bjsopen/zraa021. PMID: 33688956; PMCID: PMC7799259.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://ir.unilag.edu.ng/handle/123456789/10786
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.subjectCOVID-19 outbreaken_US
dc.subjectElectric operativesen_US
dc.subjectHospitalsen_US
dc.subjectSurgical capacityen_US
dc.subjectFuture outbreaksen_US
dc.subjectResearch Subject Categories::MEDICINE::Surgeryen_US
dc.titleCOVID-19-related absence among surgeons: development of an international surgical workforce prediction modelen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
Files
Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
zraa021.pdf
Size:
264.56 KB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
Download
License bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.71 KB
Format:
Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
Description:
Download
Collections
Surgery- Scholarly Publications