Department of Economics

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Browsing Department of Economics by Subject "Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL)"

Now showing 1 - 3 of 3
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    Open Access
    Effect of inflationary expectations on stock market returns in Nigeria
    (Journal of Economic Studies, 2020-07-07) Iwegbu, O.; Adeoye, B.W.
    This study examined the effect of inflationary expectations on stock market returns during the financial crisis era and the post-financial crisis era in Nigeria. The study built its argument using Fisher’s effect to examine the objective. The study employed quarterly data spanning through the periods of first quarter 2007 till the fourth quarter of 2018. Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag estimation technique after the stationarity of the variables have been confirmed by ADF and its long-run stability confirmed by Bounds co-integration test, the study found that inflationary expectations are key determinants of stock market returns in Nigeria. The study concludes that stocks do not hedge over inflation as expectations built up by agents in the economy affects stock returns. The study, therefore, rejects the Fisher hypothesis for the case of Nigeria in the post-global financial crisis era.
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    Open Access
    Pension Fund, Financial Development and Output Growth in Nigeria
    (Bullion, 2020-03-03) Iwegbu, O.
    This study examines the indirect effect of pension fund on economic growth in Nigeria through the financial system. Using Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) model, the study found out that pension fund contribution is effective in stimulating growth through investment in portfolios that yield short term returns; this implies that pension fund contribution cannot on its own without a credible financial system impact on economic growth. The policy implication of this study is for Pension Fund Administrators (PFAs) to invest in portfolios with short-term returns; thus, a large chunk of funds invested in federal government securities should be unbundled to other portfolios that yield shortterm returns.
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    Open Access
    The role of health infrastructure on mortality incidence in Nigeria
    (Unilag Press & Bookshop ltd, 2020) Iwegbu, O.; Oguntunde, T.
    This paper examines the role of health infrastructure on mortality incidence in Nigeria. The paper makes a proposition that infrastructure with specifics to the health sector is critical in determining the extent of mortality rate in Nigeria. The mortality cases examined are the infant mortality rate, under-five mortality rate and the maternal mortality rate. Thus, with specifics, the paper examines the role of health infrastructure on infant mortality rate, under-five mortality rate and maternal mortality rate in Nigeria. Secondary data are employed and the stationarity test of the variable is conducted using the Dickey-Fuller test while the Pesaran ARDL Bound co-integration is used to test if long-run stability exists. The test result shows that the variables are integrated at level and others at first difference; also, co-integration exists in the economic fundamentals. To this end, Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model Estimation technique is employed to examine the objectives. The study found out that the number of available physicians, nurses, midwives and the availability of vitamin A supplements are key health infrastructure that reduces mortality incidence in Nigeria. However, the availability of basic sanitation facilities, availability of basic drinking water services, availability of insecticide-treated bed nets, number of available hospital beds and provision of immunization facilities for BCG are critically lacking health infrastructure needed in reducing mortality incidence in Nigeria. The policy recommendation is that the government at all levels need to massively invest in the provision of health infrastructure by increasing her expenditure to health sector from the average of 5 – 7% it has been to above 10% to catch up with the minimum standard of 16% as recommended by UNESCO for a developing country.