Long-Term Electric Load Forecasting for University of Lagos Using Regression Analysis Method

Akinbulire, T.O. ; Oluseyi, P.O. ; Awosope, C.O.A. ; Odekunle, M. ; Idowu, O.M. (2010-03)


The university as a centre for research into the development of a nation requires constant supply of electricity. In order to achieve this, it becomes of great importance to evaluate the precise amount of energy required for continuous and uninterrupted power supply to the academic community. In line with this goal, this work investigates the historical load consumption of the University of Lagos community from which an electrical load forecast for the future energy requirement for this community can be proffered using the regression analysis method. It is the intent of this work to establish a mathematical model via the regression analysis method for the assessment of the historical data in order to predict a fairly reliable future energy requirement for the community; with special consideration for the next one decade, i.e. long-term forecasting. Even though this method is examined using the University community, it can be further extended to cover the whole country, provided the historical data of the country’s past electric energy consumption are available.